Crude Rally Raging - 2024 Highs In Sight
Crude Break Out Continues
The rally in crude is showing no signs of slowing down ahead of the weekend with the futures market now testing the 84.60 level, having broken out above the 2025 highs. Price is now at its highest level since summer 2024 and looks poised to continue higher near-term. The war between the US/Israel and Iran continues to rage and strikes on Iran, as well as Iranian counter-strikes, have increased. With violence in the Middle East widespread, supply risks for crude are soaring, leading prices higher. For now, an end to the conflict looks hard to call and while the war drags on oil prices will continue to push higher. Trump has ruled out a ground invasion of Iran, suggesting that at some-point negotiations are likely to start though the latest message from the US administration is that strikes on Iran could continue for up to eight weeks. As such, crude could easily be back above $100 per barrel in that timeframe.
Bullish Risks
Given the heightened supply risks linked to war in the Middle East, crude prices look unlikely to correct lower near-term unless we hear news of a cessation in the violence and a move towards negotiation. For now, Trump has ruled out talks with Iran, vowing to continue the strikes until the leadership there is decimated and the US can be involved in choosing a new leader. As such, the near-term outlook remains firmly bullish for crude. However, if we do hear any headlines regarding a ceasefire, this should see crude longs quickly covering their positions with the futures market vulnerable a to a sharp correction lower.
Technical Views
Crude
The rally in crude has seen the market breaking out above the bear trend line from 2025 highs and above the 78.42 level. Price is now testing the 84.60 resistance ahead of the 87.71 2024 highs. With momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continuation higher while price holds above the 78.42 level.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.