Crude Rally Gathering Pace
Fresh Threats from Trump
Crude oil prices continue to push higher through the middle of the week with the futures market now back above the key 84.60 level. The market is now up around 10% off the week’s lows and almost 30% off the monthly lows. The recent re-escalation of the US/Iran war is the main driver of the current upside and with fighting intensifying and neither side showing any willingness to back down, risks of a continued push higher in oil are growing. Yesterday, Trump dismissed calls for fresh talks with Iran and instead threatened to increase the severity of attacks, including threats against the nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain.
Fighting Intensifies
The US carried out its 11th consecutive night of attacks on Iran amidst growing calls from regional mediators for both sides to re-establish the ceasefire. However, with Iran also stepping up its attacks against US and allied site sin neighbouring countries, a near-term de-escalation looks unlikely. We’ve also seen a new front emerging in the war which is having bullish implications for the oil market. Houthi rebels, aligned with Iran, have announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, threatening any tankers which attempt to use Saudi ports. The blockade has already seen several tankers stranded today, not wishing to fulfil their journeys into port. As such, oil distribution is being tightened further and oil prices look set to rise further while hostilities continue.
Technical Views
Crude
The rally in oil prices has seen the market breaking back above 84.60, which is a key pivot level. Price is now testing the bear trend line from YTD highs which, if broken, will put focus on a test of the 95.06 level next, in line with bullish momentum studies readings.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.